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Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has a simple way to predict the future. The future is simply what rich people have today. The rich have chauffeurs. In the future, we will have driverless cars that chauffeur us all around. The rich have private bankers. In the future, we will all have robo-bankers.
One thing that we imagine that the rich have today are lives of leisure. So will our future be one in which we too have lives of leisure, and the machines are taking the sweat? We will be able to spend our time on more important things than simply feeding and housing ourselves?
Let’s turn to another chief economist. Andy Haldane is chief economist at the Bank of England. In November 2015, he predicted that 15 million jobs in the UK, roughly half of all jobs, were under threat from automation. You’d hope he knew what he was talking about.
AdvertisementAnd he’s not the only one making dire predictions. Politicians. Bankers. Industrialists. They’re all saying a similar thing.
“We need urgently to face the challenge of automation, robotics that could make so much of contemporary work redundant”, Jeremy Corbyn at the Labour Party Conference in September 2017.
“World Bank data has predicted that the proportion of jobs threatened by automation in India is 69 percent, 77 percent in China and as high as 85 percent in Ethiopia”, according to World Bank president Jim Yong Kim in 2016.
It really does sound like we might be facing the end of work as we know it.
Many of these fears can be traced back to a 2013 study from the University of Oxford. This made a much quoted prediction that 47% of jobs in the US were under threat of automation in the next two decades. Other more recent and detailed studies have made similar dramatic predictions.
Now, there’s a lot to criticize in the Oxford study. From a technical perspective, some of report’s predictions are clearly wrong. The report gives a 94% probability that bicycle repair person will be automated in the next two decades. And, as someone trying to build that future, I can reassure any bicycle repair person that there is zero chance that we will automate even small parts of your job anytime soon. The truth of the matter is no one has any real idea of the number of jobs at risk.
Even if we have as many as 47% of jobs automated, this won’t translate into 47% unemployment. One reason is that we might just work a shorter week. That was the case in the Industrial Revolution. Before the Industrial Revolution, many worked 60 hours per week. After the Industrial Revolution, work reduced to around 40 hours per week. The same could happen with the unfolding AI Revolution.
Another reason that 47% automation won’t translate into 47% unemployment is that all technologies create new jobs as well as destroy them. That’s been the case in the past, and we have no reason to suppose that it won’t be the case in the future. There is, however, no fundamental law of economics that requires the same number of jobs to be created as destroyed. In the past, more jobs were created than destroyed but it doesn’t have to be so in the future.
In the Industrial Revolution, machines took over many of the physical tasks we used to do. But we humans were still left with all the cognitive tasks. This time, as machines start to take on many of the cognitive tasks too, there’s the worrying question: what is left for us humans?
Some of my colleagues suggest there will be plenty of new jobs like robot repair person. I am entirely unconvinced by such claims. The thousands of people who used to paint and weld in most of our car factories got replaced by only a couple of robot repair people.
No, the new jobs will have to be doing jobs where either humans excel or where we choose not to have machines. But here’s the contradiction. In fifty to hundred years time, machines will be super-human. So it’s hard to imagine of any job where humans will remain better than the machines. This means the only jobs left will be those where we prefer humans to do them.
The AI Revolution then will be about rediscovering the things that make us human. Technically, machines will have become amazing artists. They will be able to write music to rival Bach, and paintings to match Picasso. But we’ll still prefer works produced by human artists.
These works will speak to the human experience. We will appreciate a human artist who speaks about love because we have this in common. No machine will truly experience love like we do.
As well as the artistic, there will be a re-appreciation of the artisan. Indeed, we see the beginnings of this already in hipster culture. We will appreciate more and more those things made by the human hand. Mass-produced goods made by machine will become cheap. But items made by hand will be rare and increasingly valuable.
Finally as social animals, we will also increasingly appreciate and value social interactions with other humans. So the most important human traits will be our social and emotional intelligence, as well as our artistic and artisan skills. The irony is that our technological future will not be about technology but all about our humanity.
Toby Walsh is Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia. His new book, “Android Dreams: the past, present and future of Artificial Intelligence” was published in the UK by Hurst Publishers in September 2017. It’s available from the Guardian Bookshop. You can read more at his blog, http://thefutureofai.blogspot.com/
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Mình làm đc câu 3 thôi nhé..
As you know, internet brings us lots of things that the news or book doesn't mention it. Firstly, it helps us improve our knowledge of about the things around us. There are also millions of videos on sites like YouTube that help explain various topics and even online courses that can be taken to help teach you about many different subjects. Secondly, it also help us expanding the relationship through the internet like Facebook, games, Instagram, ...Thirdly, with the help of GPS technology, the Internet can help map and direct you to almost every place in the world. You can quickly route to your location or find businesses in your area that may sell or provide you with a service you need. in short, In conclusion, the internet has a great contribution to our lives when we use it appropriately.
2.
There are a lot of things in the countryside and I will tell you something about it. As you know, the air in the countryside is very fresh and the sky is vast here. There are no buildings to block the view. Country folk are more friendly than city folk. I know everybody in my village. But in the countryside, the entertainment centre is far and some house don't have wifi, the things that everyone in the city need. the contryside has benefits that a boring person would ever discover.
Bạn có thể thêm 1 vài ý bạn không thích về nông thôn vào nhé
Nhớ tick nha :33
Noise pollution is a very special type of pollution.
(Definition:) It is known to be the exposure to some high sound levels that may lead to adverse effects in humans or other living organisms. (Causes:) Noise becomes harmful when it exceeds 75 decibels (dB), such as the sound at a busy residential road. Noise is painful when above 120 dB, such as the sound of a jet taking off. (Effects:) Noise pollution affects not only the hearing but also the nervous system. It can make us deaf or have high blood pressure, nervousness, hearing loss, and sleep disturbances.
Bài này cô viết về ô nhiễm tiếng ồn, một loại ô nhiễm xảy ra ở cuộc sống hiện đại.
Cô chúc em học tập vui vẻ và có nhiều trải nghiệm bổ ích tại Hoc24.vn nhé!
Pollution has become a major environmental issue as it has created lots of health hazards to the people and animals of any age group. In the recent years the rate of pollution is increasing very sharply because of the industrialized waste material mixing out directly into the soil, air and water. However, in our country full attention is not getting paid to control it. It needs to be tackle seriously otherwise our future generations would suffer a lot.
Pollution is classified into many categories according to the natural resources getting affected such as air pollution, soil pollution, water pollution, noise pollution, etc. Rate of pollution is increasing due to the selfishness of the human being to earn more money and to fulfill some unnecessary wishes. In the modern era where technological advancement is given more priority by the people, everyone has forgotten the real discipline of life.
Continuous and unnecessary cutting down of the forests, urbanization and large production through industrialization has involved as a huge causes of the pollution. Harmful and poisonous wastes created from such activities causes irreversible changes to the soil, air and water which ultimately push lives towards pain. This big social issue needs a public level social awareness programme to destroy by its root to get complete relief.
Pollution is the mixing of some harmful or poisonous materials into the natural resources available on the earth. It affects the ordinary living of the living things on this planet by disturbing the natural life cycle. Pollution can be of many types like noise pollution, air pollution, soil pollution, water pollution, etc. Air pollution is increasing day by day because of the growing number of automobiles, release of poisonous gases, smoke from industrial companies, finely dissolved solids, liquid aerosols, etc in the atmosphere. The air we breathe every moment causes several lungs disorders.
In this way soil and water pollution is also cause by the mixing up of the sewage water (having germs, viruses, harmful chemicals, etc) in drinking water, some dangerous agrochemicals such as pesticides, fungicides, herbicides, organic compounds like ether, benzene, some radioactive materials including radium and thorium, solid wastes (industrial ashes, rubbish, garbage), etc. We need to follow all the control measures implemented by the government to check its harmful effects.
Essay on Water Pollution – Essay 2 (250 Words)
Introduction:
The consumption of water forms a large part of our physical health. Aside from this obvious fact, water is an important aspect of our ecosystem. However, for water to perform its various functions, it has to be kept pure as contaminated water would lead to adverse environmental and health consequences.
Water pollution is the introduction of foreign material into our water bodies like lakes, streams, rivers or groundwater. This introduction, 9 times out of 10 is usually a result of human interference. Through various activities, sometimes inadvertently, we pollute our ecosystem with toxic materials dumped into our water.
Causes of Water Pollution:
One of the most popular features of water is also the cause of water pollution. Water is a “Universal Solvent” which simply means that it can dissolve almost any substance. Consequently, it is also why toxic substance mixes with water effortlessly. These toxic materials could be from traceable sources such as factories, farms, sewage etc. They are sometimes less traceable sources such as pollution in the air.
Water Pollution Effect on our Environment:
The first organisms that come in contact with polluted water are creatures living in the water. The effect of water pollution on aquatic animals depends on the kind of material introduced into the water. In extreme cases, it can lead to death of aqua species. It can also lead to a serious disrupting of the food chain. Finally, water pollution can lead to serious diseases in humans such as cholera and hepatitis.
Preventive Measures:
While the obvious way to reduce or eliminate water pollution is to stop industrial waste, doing just that and nothing more would not be enough. Preventive measures such as reduction in plastic consumption, controlling leaks in cars, using fewer pesticides or efficient disposal of chemicals would help us go the extra mile.
There are many benefits of having hobbies. First , having hobbies are not just for fun but also helpful for your mental health . They are important for people to enjoy good health and have a happy living. Second, people who are too busy with their works and lead a stressful life , they're very important for such people to start hobbies . Finally , hobbies help in gaining knowledge. Further , hobbies are great way to make new friends and improve social skills. So , start your hobbies for a fun life
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